The Arab Gulf and the change of strategic alliances,, European Union, and great diplomatic opportunities

Nasser Zohair, Paris, 28 February 2021: The last extraordinary European summit in Brussels, confirmed the new European orientation on Europe's defense and political independence, that is far from the interests of the United States and the American shadow that Europe continent remains under its umbrella since World War II.

"We have to reduce our dependency and diversify our supplies, and this does not apply only to the military capabilities", European Commission President Ursula Vu der Leyen said.

European Commission president statements in addition to the previous statements of French President Emmanuel Macron about the need to build a strong Europe, that depends on integrated independence in defense policy, reinforces its strategic autonomy and on the principle of interests in foreign relations. France has an ambitious project to build a unified European army or resort to a joint French-European nuclear strategy, to secure Europe away from the US and NATO roles, that France and many French politicians consider to be of 'no real benefit' to Europe.

From this perspective, and from the Franco-German approach to build a new and strong Europe, the two poles of the European leadership should move quickly and take advantage of the opportunities in the Middle East and the Gulf region.

  

The new US administration seems to be in a clash with its allies in the Gulf states, more than what Obama administration was, and according to the rift between Europe and the US caused by the US former president Donald Trump in the relations of the both sides of the Atlantic, it seems that US president Joe Biden will create a bigger and deeper rift in US alliance with its allies in the Gulf.

According to the recent indicators regarding dealing with Iran or the pressure on the countries of the Middle East, most notably the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, these countries will move towards changing their long-term strategic alliances, and at the very least the possibility of diversifying their alliances and introducing new international players to the Arab region, that will be a part that strikes a balance with the US role that witnesses tensions in bilateral relations with the countries of the region and the principle of the strategic alliance.

 

France, Germany and UK.. The huge opportunities in the Middle East

The initial indicators point out that the Middle East countries will definitely diversify their strategic alliances in the next five years, and there will be many candidates to play this important strategic role in the region that is considered the most important in the world in terms of the energy sources and the strategic location.

According to the balance of international powers, there is no country in the world that can create the balance of powers instead of the US role in the region. Every international part has its interest in any alliance in the principle of profit or loss. The countries of the region in the meantime, will not venture into cooperating again in a complete and strategic alliance with one country, whatever its political, economic and military strength. Accordingly, the most prominent option would rely on varied and balanced alliances with more than one international part, whether from the West or the East.

In this regard, the four important countries from East and West, namely “France, Britain, Russia and China,” have the essential important factors to any strategic alliance in the region, that are " The nuclear military power, a permanent seat at the UN Security Council with the veto power,a major international and economic power, and the Political and economic influence". These important elements that the four international powers are providing, make them strongly candidates to the expected long-term strategic alliances in the Middle East and the Gulf region.

Germany also appears on the international political and economic map, as a rising alliance power, but in a limited way due to its lack of two important elements in long-term alliances, mainly "The nuclear military power and a permanent seat in the UN Security Council with veto power". In the meantime, Germany remains a huge International economic power in the scene. 

We can call this group the "4 + 1", as the major international powers which are candidates to play a central role in the upcoming political, economic and military alliances in the Middle East.

France and Germany.. The building of a new Europe

France and Germany are heading to build a new Europe, after the Brexit and the changes in the EU-US relations. The US president Joe Biden seeks to return relations with Europe to how they were before Donald Trump came to power, and keeps the Europeans under the US domination, but he fails and the European summit last Friday in Brussels confirmed that.

As France and Germany want to build a strong Europe, they urgently need strong economic alliances first, then long-term strategic alliances with regard to the energy security, which is very vital for Europe due to its lack of oil and gas resources, unlike Russia and the United States, in addition to open new markets for arms exports and important European strategic commodities. These factors push Paris and Berlin to move towards the Gulf region and the Middle East, to build these long-term alliances.

Europe has an important point, when Paris and Berlin declared the necessity and inevitability of the negotiations over Iran's destabilizing policy in the region and its ballistic missile program. In the contrary, Biden administration proposed a direct revive to the nuclear deal, if Iran first reverse its nuclear steps. Biden's call does not satisfy US allies in the Gulf region.

France also has very good relations in the Gulf region at the political, military and economic levels, that make France can quickly strengthen these ties and relations and convert them into long-term strategic alliances at all levels. The presence of the joint European military force in the region to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, is an important and strong starting point to strengthen the European military power in the Gulf region and build military bases in partnership with the allies in the region, to secure and defend the common interest.

European group led by France and Germany, has almost a great opportunity to obtain the huge share of the upcoming strategic alliances in the Middle East and the Gulf region, given that they possess all the elements and qualifications to be a reliable political, economic and military partner.

It seems there is an urgent need now for the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and the German Heiko Maas to head towards the Arab Gulf region as soon as possible, to start the diplomatic communication for these long-term strategic alliances, in preparation for greater important moves by the Elysee in Paris and the Chancellery's headquarters in Berlin.

Certainly, the task will not be easy for the European side to enter into these alliances in a region that is considered a historical strategic alliance of the United States, but by reading the history of international alliances, the constants are changing in the principle of alliances.

Who would have believed that the former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat would be able to transfer Egypt from the historical link and alliance with the Soviet Union to change its orientation 180 degrees towards the Western camp. Therefor, the opportunity seems very available at this time, but needs the first steps of French and German diplomacy.

UK, the return to the international arena independently. 

Britain is a very important factor in the compass of the new alliances coming in the region. After the Kingdom's exit from the European Union, there is a need to build new alliances for UK to ensure its strong return to the international arena, that guarantees the UK strength of political, economic and military influence in the next stage.

The Arab Gulf region is considered an extension of UK political and military influence, that was in a very strong alliance before the United States changed the strategy of influence and alliances. Despite the decline of the British role, London still has strong and very deep relations with all the Arab Gulf states, and can work quickly on strengthening these relations and developing them, especially that London is seeking important economic partners in the coming stage.

The strategy of diversifying alliances and strategic partnerships, in political, military and economic levels, is considered an urgent necessity after the Corona pandemic and the fluctuations in the US policy from one administration to another, especially that the US has become an unreliable strategic partner. Obama administration approved that, when the administration concluded the nuclear deal with Iran without consultation and approval of US allies in the Gulf region, then the principle of mistrust was emphasized by the Trump administration, that dealt with the European partner as competitor and enemy on many occasions.

These points are considered a meeting point of interests between European countries and UK on one hand, and the countries of the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf on the other hand. France, Germany and Britain shouldn't miss this great opportunity, as the opportunity might not be available again on the international arena to make such important strategic alliances.

Also, the other international key players such as Russia and China will not miss the chance and might move quickly to enter the Arab region, that is considered a strategic treasure at the political and economic level whenever they got the chance to do so. 

European diplomacy should not remain late, especially in the light of the international changes and the re-formation of political, military and economic alliances. Otherwise, Europe would continue being late from the major world powers. This opportunity is the biggest for France and Britain in the Middle East and the Gulf region that should be in action and applied soon.  Nasser Zuhair

Head of the Department of Economic and Diplomatic Affairs

In the European Policy Organization