Brussels - Paris / The military and political conflict in the African Sahel region is escalating following the failure of diplomatic efforts led by both the United States and the ECOWAS group to reach a settlement that would prevent the military intervention threatened by ECOWAS countries, supported by France, to restore constitutional order in Niger and end the coup.
The decision of the coup authorities in Niger to expel the French ambassador from Niamey and request the withdrawal of French forces from Niger has brought the military conflict closer, especially as the situation appears to be deadlocked, and Paris does not seem inclined to back down or overlook its influence and interests, as seen in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso. With the intensification of international confrontation between acceptance and rejection of military intervention in Niger, this conflict has turned into an international struggle and is no longer confined to internal or regional strife in Niger and the Sahel countries.
- Economic Interests as the Main Driver for International Actions and Conflicts in Niger -
With a political and military dimension to the conflict in Niger, economic interests are the primary motive for the actions of major powers involved in conflicts in Africa. This includes maintaining interests for countries like France and expanding interests and gaining new spheres of influence for Russia, China, and the United States. In the past decade, this confrontation has been postponed in favor of other issues in the international conflicts map, but the Niger crisis appears to be the key to transforming these conflicts into a dispute where defenders and aircraft defend economic interests.
Africa possesses significant natural resources, primarily in the mining, energy, and uranium sectors, in addition to major economic interests related to development, infrastructure, and a strategically important location in the map of international conflicts. Key factors in the growth of this international conflict towards Africa include:
1. Natural Resources:
Africa is rich in natural resources such as oil, gas, precious metals, and raw materials. These resources are a significant attraction for countries and major corporations seeking new sources of energy and raw materials.
2. Consumer Market:
With the increasing population and economic growth in some African countries, the continent represents an important market for various products and services. This encourages global companies to invest and expand in Africa.
3. Infrastructure and Development:
African countries need to develop strong infrastructure and enhance development in various sectors. This opens the door to foreign investments to provide technology and expertise in development projects.
4. Agriculture and Food:
Agriculture is an important source of income in Africa, and there are significant opportunities to increase production and improve agricultural infrastructure. Major countries are interested in ensuring food security and expanding export opportunities.
5. Investment and Trade:
The African economy is witnessing an increase in foreign direct investment flows. This contributes to strengthening infrastructure and stimulating economic growth. In addition, major countries are seeking innovative trade partnerships to increase trade volume.
6. Technology and Innovation:
Some African countries are experiencing progress in the technology and innovation sector, opening the door to new investment opportunities in areas such as clean technology and mobile applications.
8. Sustainable Development:
With growing interest in environmental issues and sustainable development, major countries are looking for opportunities to collaborate in areas such as renewable energy and sustainable natural resource management.
9. Poverty Alleviation and Improvement of Living Conditions:
The economic and social challenges in Africa make it an attractive region for international development programs and aid, focusing on improving living conditions and combating poverty to address the risk of illegal migration and the growing influence of extremist groups in African Sahel countries.
With Africa possessing vast natural wealth and significant development potential, it has become a focal point for major countries seeking to achieve their economic and geopolitical interests in the region. We summarize the key points in the conflict of economic interests and the political implications in this conflict.
Economic Interests of Major Powers in Africa:
France: - France maintains strong historical and economic ties with Francophone African countries. It seeks to secure its interests in sectors such as oil, gas, and mining. For example, France imports nearly 20% of its oil needs from African countries.
2. China: - China enhances its presence in Africa through significant investments in development projects and infrastructure, in exchange for access to natural resources. China is a key partner in exporting raw materials such as copper and iron.
3. Russia: - Russia aims to expand its cooperation with African countries in various sectors, including energy, mining, and infrastructure. For instance, in Sudan, Russia has signed agreements for cooperation in oil, gas, and the construction of nuclear power plants.
4. United States: - The United States focuses on promoting trade and investment in Africa, with an emphasis on providing security and encouraging innovation. American companies, such as General Electric, offer technological solutions and infrastructure.
5. European Union: - The European Union includes countries with diverse interests in Africa. It focuses on sustainable development and improving living conditions, encouraging investment in sectors like renewable energy and information technology.
Trade Exchanges between African Countries and Major Economic Powers:- Trade with China: - In 2020, the total trade between China and Africa reached about $170 billion, with most African exports to China consisting of raw materials.
Trade with the European Union:
- In 2020, the total trade between the European Union and Africa was around €385 billion, with most African exports to the European Union comprising agricultural products and raw materials.
- Trade with Russia:
- Before the cutoff date in September 2021, the trade volume between Africa and Russia was approximately $19 billion annually. This volume includes various exports and imports between the two sides.
Trade with the United States:
Impact of Economic Conflict on Political Conflict in Niger:
The internal policies of African countries are influenced by the economic competition among major powers. For example, in Niger, one of the world's poorest countries, competition among major powers in investment and infrastructure cooperation affects local politics and government decisions regarding directing investments and improving living conditions.
The economic conflict in Africa among major powers plays a crucial role in shaping political and economic dynamics in the region. These countries seek to benefit from natural resources, enhance their trade, and expand their influence. A precise understanding of these challenges is required to achieve sustainable development and stability in Africa.
Economy as a Political Influence in Africa:
African countries strive to maximize the benefits of the shift in the compass of international conflicts towards the continent in recent years. The economy seems to be the primary driver of influence in Africa, replacing traditional political influence and diplomatic weapon influence. While some African countries lean towards enhancing military partnerships to support their influence, major African powers focus on the economy and the economic incentives each party can offer.
The international power struggle for influence in Africa: Points of strength and weakness...
1. Russia:
- Russia has a long history of relations with African countries, giving it some readiness and experience in dealing with the continent's challenges.
- Russia seeks to enhance its military presence in Africa by signing military agreements and providing military training to local forces.
- Russia has the capability to offer technology and military equipment at competitive prices, making it an attractive option for some African countries looking to improve their defense capabilities.
Weaknesses:
- The Russian economy faces challenges and international sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, affecting its ability to finance projects in Africa.
- China and the United States compete significantly with Russia in providing support and investment in infrastructure and economic projects in Africa.
2. European Union:
The countries of the European Union possess strong economic and strategic interests in Africa, particularly in trade, energy, and investment.
The European Union countries are attempting to shift from their previous strategy that relied on France as a representative of European interests in Africa, considering its historical colonial influence. However, with tensions in French relations with several African countries, countries like Germany and Italy have moved to build different strategies and paths with African nations.
While the European Union is still capable of competing with Chinese influence through trade exchanges exceeding 250 billion euros, European countries face a significant weakness in financing and investing in African countries.
Weaknesses:
Internal competition among EU countries may impact their unity and ability to make unified decisions regarding foreign policy toward Africa.
Europe faces strong competition from China and the United States in trade and investment in Africa.
3. United States:
The United States represents a significant economic and military power, enabling it to provide military and economic support to African countries. Recent U.S. moves, including visits by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Vice President Kamala Harris, indicate an increased focus on Africa.
However, Washington still prioritizes other regions over Africa in its diplomatic and economic endeavors, and it remains weaker compared to China's growing economic influence in the continent.
Weaknesses:
Military presence and economic projects in Africa incur substantial costs, potentially negatively impacting the U.S. budget.
The United States faces diplomatic and political challenges from Russia and China, both seeking to enhance their influence in the continent.
4. China:
China is a global economic powerhouse with the ability to provide substantial financing and investment in infrastructure projects and natural resources in Africa, making it the current economic powerhouse and the largest diplomatic force on a global scale.
China adopts a non-intervention policy in the internal affairs of African countries, enhancing its appeal to some African governments.
Weaknesses:
China faces challenges in dealing with security and political issues in Africa, particularly in conflict-affected regions.
Criticism is directed at China for its economic policies, potentially leading African countries into debt and undermining their sovereignty.
Despite escalating political, military, and economic conflicts worldwide, the economy remains the primary driver of international influence in Africa. Russia, the European Union, the United States, and China must present long-term economic strategies in Africa to compete in this global power struggle.
- The main driver of international influence in Africa is the economy -
For decades, Africa has been an area of French influence, untouched by major powers vying for political, economic, and military dominance globally. However, since the end of the global economic crisis and Africa's entry into a spiral of economic collapses, the economy and investments have become the main drivers of international influence on the continent. China has capitalized on this trend, followed by India, Germany, and recently, Russia.
France neglected to move economically and in terms of investments, relying on its political and military influence over the decades. Recently, Paris has realized that political and military influence alone cannot ensure its presence in Africa, especially with its diminishing role in Sahelian countries like Mali, and other African nations aligning with Beijing and Moscow.
For France to maintain its influence in Africa, it needs to move economically alongside political and military measures.
The Necessity of a Unified European Move in Africa -
France, Germany, and Italy must act as the economic and military engines of a European initiative if they genuinely want to preserve joint influence in Africa. European interests will be severely at risk, particularly regarding the growth of extremist groups in the Sahel region. Since France lacks the economic power for external investment in Africa, countries like Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy are crucial in this proposed European partnership. Their contributions can increase European economic influence in Africa, especially concerning investments.
Economic Political Unit / European Union File
European Organization for Diplomatic and Economic Policies / Geneva Center for Studies
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